The New Math of Credit Scores

 

Fair Isaac’s Revamped FICO Aims to Forgive Small Slips, Punish Repeat Offenders.

By JANE J. KIM
December 19, 2007; Page D1

The company that cooks up credit scores for millions of Americans is changing its recipe — and that could affect how easily you get credit in the future.Fair Isaac Corp., maker of the popular FICO credit score used by most lenders, says its new scoring model will do a better job predicting the likelihood of a borrower defaulting on a loan. For one thing, the new model, dubbed FICO 08, will be more forgiving of occasional slips by consumers, but will take a harder line on repeat offenders. Fair Isaac predicts its new system will help lenders reduce default rates on their consumer credit by between 5% and 15%.

The rollout of the new credit-scoring system comes at a time when lenders say they are eager for more-accurate measures of credit risk, in part because of rising loan defaults as subprime mortgages go bad and housing prices fall. And there are signs that delinquencies are creeping into other types of consumer debt, including auto loans, further prompting lenders to tighten up on credit.

The FICO score, which Fair Isaac says is used by 90% of the 100 largest banks, and other similar scores hold sway over the lives of millions of people. Financial institutions use them to determine the granting and pricing of credit, insurance, cellphone usage and, in some cases, employment and utility services. Some consumer groups have raised concerns about whether credit scores are being used properly and whether they are valid measures of credit risk for some groups of consumers, especially minorities and lower-income individuals, says Travis Plunkett, the legislative director for the Consumer Federation of America.

Credit scores, which are calculated using proprietary models, also are criticized for a lack of transparency. “This is a product, per se, but it’s a product that has inordinate influence on the financial lives of hundreds of millions of Americans,” says Mr. Plunkett. Fair Isaac, based in Minneapolis, says it believes it does a good job of explaining the factors that go into calculating the FICO score and in guiding consumers on how to manage their scores.

Consumers could start seeing the new FICO scores by the spring, though some lenders may take additional time to test the system to see how it works with their business and loan portfolios. Fair Isaac, which last revamped its scoring model earlier this decade, says it is accelerating its FICO 08 rollout, partly in response to lenders’ demand for better risk-management tools.

The latest version of the FICO score will largely look and feel the same to consumers and lenders. Scores will still range from 300 to 850 — the higher the better — and the model will continue to look at the same factors, including consumers’ level of credit indebtedness and payment histories, length of credit histories, number of recent credit openings and inquiries, and the type of credit used, to determine scores.

But the new model will more finely slice and dice the information in consumers’ credit files to do a better job of separating the “good risks” from the “bad risks,” particularly for subprime borrowers; those with “thin,” or young, credit files; or consumers who are actively seeking new credit. “Those are the communities that lenders are most interested in” to determine credit risk, says Craig Watts, spokesman for Fair Isaac.

“Consumers who are low risk will score better with the new FICO version, and consumers who are high risk will score lower,” says John Ulzheimer, president of consumer education for Credit.com, a personal-finance Web site. Higher-risk borrowers may find it tougher to get credit, while those with less-risky profiles — though they may have gotten approved for credit accounts in the past — will start to get better deals from lenders, he says.

Two people with the same FICO score currently could see their scores diverge under the new system. One possible reason: FICO 08 gives more points to consumers who maintain a variety of credit types, such as credit cards, a mortgage and auto loan, because it shows they can manage payments on different kinds of loans. On the other hand, the new scoring system penalizes to a greater degree borrowers who use a high percentage of their available credit.

FICO 08 also will draw greater distinctions among different borrowers who are at least 90 days late in making a loan payment, known as a serious delinquency. Traditionally, many credit-scoring models grouped subprime consumers into one general category. But Fair Isaac says its new model will give a higher score to a borrower in arrears if they also have a number of other credit accounts in good standing. Conversely, a person’s score could drop if he or she has multiple delinquent accounts.

“Overall, more consumers will see their FICO scores go up slightly than will see their scores drop,” says Tom Quinn, vice president of global scoring solutions for Fair Isaac.

Despite the new scoring model, consumers still have to make sure the information in their credit reports, which Fair Isaac relies on to come up with its score, is accurate. If consumers feel their FICO score is unfair, they would have to go to the individual credit bureaus, Experian Group Ltd., TransUnion LLC and Equifax Inc., for a copy of their credit report on file and look for any errors or missing information. If there are any, they would have to contact the credit bureau or the financial institutions to dispute those errors.

FICO 08 also aims to curtail the growing business of allowing people to polish their credit by “piggybacking” on someone else’s good credit history. In recent years, credit-repair Web sites have sprung up that arrange for subprime consumers to boost their scores by becoming authorized users on accounts held by strangers with better credit. When scoring a consumer, FICO 08 won’t take into consideration credit-card accounts for which that person is an authorized user. But the move also will hurt legitimate users: People who give a credit card to a child or a spouse as an authorized user to help boost their credit score.

FICO 08 is likely to face some competition from VantageScore Solutions LLC of Stamford, Conn., a joint venture of the three credit bureaus that was rolled out in 2006. Fair Isaac has sued VantageScore and the three bureaus, accusing them of using unfair and anticompetitive practices to harm the FICO brand. Recently, Equifax linked the suit with the launch of FICO 08. The company has said it wouldn’t move forward with FICO 08 and that its relationship with Fair Isaac remains “strained” until the lawsuit is resolved, says David Rubinger, Equifax spokesman. The new FICO model has already been distributed to Experian, which is in the process of implementing it, while TransUnion expects to have the scoring model available for lenders to test during the second quarter of 2008. Fair Isaac says its intention is to provide the formula to all three credit-reporting agencies.

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For those of my readers who have current FICO scores of 640 or above: the new scoring model will likely help your score improve further in the first few quarters of 2008. For those of you who have credit scores below 620, it is important that you revise your entire credit repair and financial strategy going into next year to be sure what you are doing will help and not hurt you going forward with these changes. My office can help you with this during a free consultation, so give us a call at 1-888-456-5635 to set an appointment right over the telephone. As always you can e-mail me directly at rob@yourdebtresource.com with any other questions.

Wishing you a peaceful & prosperous 2008,

Robert Weinberg
The Renegade Financial Insider
Office 888.456.5635

 

Unpaid Credit Cards Bedevil Americans

The gist of the situation is that many American consumers are now leaving their credit card payment obligations behind to take care of more pressing ones, such as their rising mortgage payments, increasing fuel costs and other financial hardships. I have written about this subject in the past and it is a natural progression of the entire credit crunch/crisis happening right now in the US economy. Stories like these illustrate why it is so important to always have a (constantly evolving) financial plan to take you where you want to go: becoming debt free, being prepared for retirement, and beyond…..

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments at an alarming rate, sending delinquencies and defaults surging by double-digit percentages in the last year and prompting warnings of worse to come.

An Associated Press analysis of financial data from the country’s largest card issuers also found that the greatest rise was among accounts more than 90 days in arrears.

Experts say these signs of the deterioration of finances of many households are partly a byproduct of the subprime mortgage crisis and could spell more trouble ahead for an already sputtering economy.

“Debt eventually leaks into other areas, whether it starts with the mortgage and goes to the credit card or vice versa,” said Cliff Tan, a visiting scholar at Stanford University and an expert on credit risk. “We’re starting to see leaks now.”

The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP. That represented more than 4 percent of the total outstanding principal balances owed to the trusts on credit cards that were issued by banks such as Bank of America and Capital One and for retailers like Home Depot and Wal-Mart.

At the same time, defaults — when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt — rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Serious delinquencies also are up sharply: Some of the nation’s biggest lenders — including Advanta, GE Money Bank and HSBC — reported increases of 50 percent or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent when compared with the same period a year ago.

The AP analyzed data representing about 325 million individual accounts held in trusts that were created by credit card issuers in order to sell the debt to investors — similar to how many banks packaged and sold subprime mortgage loans. Together, they represent about 45 percent of the $920 billion the Federal Reserve counts as credit card debt owed by Americans.

Until recently, credit card default rates had been running close to record lows, providing one of the few profit growth areas for the nation’s banks, which continue to flood Americans’ mailboxes with billions of letters monthly offering easy sign-ups for new plastic.

Even after the recent spike in bad loans, the credit card business is still quite lucrative, thanks to interest rates that can run as high as 36 percent, plus late fees and other penalties.

But what is coming into sharper focus from the detailed monthly SEC filings from the trusts is a snapshot of the worrisome state of Americans’ ability to juggle growing and expensive credit card debt.

The trend carried into November. As of Friday, all of the trusts that filed reports for the month show increases in both delinquencies and defaults over November 2006, and many show sequential increases from October.

Discover accounts 30 days or more delinquent jumped 25,716 from November 2006 and had increased 6,000 between October and November this year.

Many economists expect delinquencies and defaults to rise further after the holiday shopping season.

Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody’s Economy.com Inc., cited mounting mortgage problems that began after this summer’s subprime financial shock as one of the culprits, as well as a weakening job market in the Midwest, South and parts of the West, where real-estate markets have been particularly hard hit.

“Credit card quality will continue to erode throughout next year,” Zandi said.

Economists also cite America’s long-standing attitude that debt — even high-interest credit card debt — is not a big deal.

“The desires of consumers to want, want, want, spend, spend, spend — it’s the fabric of our nation,” said Howard Dvorkin, founder of Consolidated Credit Counseling Services in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., which has advised more than 5 million people in debt. “But you always have to pay the piper, and that can be a very painful process.”

Filing for bankruptcy is no longer a solution for many Americans because of a 2005 change to federal law that made it harder to walk away from debt. Those with above-average incomes are barred from declaring Chapter 7 — where debts can be wiped out entirely — except under special circumstances and must instead file a repayment plan under the more restrictive Chapter 13.

Personal finance coaches say the problem is most grave for individuals who are months delinquent or already in default — like Kenneth McGuinness, a postal clerk from Flushing, N.Y.

His credit card struggles began nine years ago, when he charged his son’s college tuition and books. He thought he was being clever: His credit card’s 6 percent “teaser” interest rate was lower than the 8.6 percent interest on a college loan.

McGuinness, 61, soon began using Citibank and Chase cards for food, dental work and copays on doctor visits and minor surgeries. Interest rates surged to 30 percent. Now he’s $37,000 in debt and plans to file for bankruptcy in February.

“I tried to pay what I could and go after the high-interest accounts first,” McGuinness said. “But it just kept getting higher and higher, and with late charges and surcharges I was going backward.”

In the wake of the jump in defaults on subprime mortgage loans made to borrowers with poor credit histories, banks have been less willing to allow consumers to consolidate credit card debt into home equity loans or refinanced mortgages. That is leaving some with no option but to miss payments, economists said.

Investors also are backing away from buying securitized credit-card debt, said Moshe Orenbuch, managing director at Credit Suisse. But that probably has more to do with concerns about the overall health of the U.S. economy, he said.

“It’s been getting tougher to finance any kind of structured finance — mortgages, automobile loans, credit cards, student loans,” said Orenbuch, who specializes in the credit industry.

Capital One Financial Corp. reported that delinquencies and defaults are highest in regions where troubled mortgages are concentrated, including California and Florida.

Among the trusts examined, Bank of America Corp. had the highest delinquency volume, with overdue accounts valued at $5 billion. Bank of America defaults in October were almost 200 percent higher than in October 2006.

A spokesman for Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America declined to comment.

Other trusts — including those linked to Capital One, American Express Co., Discover Financial Services Co. and those containing “branded” cards from Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Companies Inc., Target Corp. and Circuit City Stores Inc. — also reported striking increases in year-over-year delinquency and default rates for October. Most banks and other financial institutions holding credit card debt on their own books also reported double-digit increases in delinquencies.

The one exception in October was JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s credit card trust, which reported declines in both delinquencies and defaults. A Chase spokesperson attributed this to its focus on prime borrowers and aggressive account management.

By contrast, Capital One executives told analysts last month that the company projected 2008 write-offs of credit card debt to be at least $4.9 billion. This projection, analysts were told, took into account growing delinquencies and potential effects if the housing market continued its downward slide.

Capital One spokeswoman Julie Rakes said the increase in delinquencies could be due to an accounting change last summer, which shortened the grace period between when statements were issued and the due date.

Capital One also reported that the number of accounts 90 days or more in arrears had increased between October and November. More than 1.2 million of Capital One’s 30 million accounts were either delinquent or in default.

Many personal financial coaches expect this trend to accelerate in 2008 — particularly among people who took out untraditional loans whose interest rate has risen, requiring owners to pay mortgages several hundred dollars more than just a year ago.

“You’re looking at more and more distress — consumers desperately trying to preserve their credit lines, but there’s nowhere else to go,” said Robert Manning, director of the Center for Consumer Financial Services at Rochester Institute of Technology. “It’s like a game of dominoes.”

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If you are in a situation where your payment may go up in the near future on your home loan, or the credit card bills are just getting to the point where it seems too much to handle; realize that there are other options besides credit counseling, debt negotiation, and bankruptcy to help you and eliminate your debt; methods that actually HELP your credit and your situation. It is important that you get in touch with my office to schedule a free consultation as soon as possible before the problem erodes your credit score and takes a toll on other areas of your life. You can call my office directly at 1-888-456-5635 or email me at rob@yourdebtresource.com

Robert Weinberg

President Bush announces plan to Freeze ARM Rates

The President annouced a new plan last week to help borrowers who may go into default on their home loans due to adjustable rate mortgages. it definitely looks like it will help “some” people.

Below are the details of the program, however if you have ARM rate mortgage and would like our office to review it, please feel free to call our office at (888)456-5635 or email us at rob@yourdebtresource.com to set up an appointment.

Happy Holidays,
Robert Weinberg

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Bush subprime plan offers help to 1.2M

Mortgage interest rates will be frozen only for ARM borrowers who are not yet in foreclosure.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

December 6 2007: 2:43 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The Bush administration unveiled a foreclosure relief plan Thursday that the White House said could help 1.2 million distressed homeowners.

In separate announcements, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the plan will streamline the mortgage modification process for many distressed borrowers. It will offer “more relief to more homeowners, more quickly,” the president said. And it will include a five-year freeze on interest rates for borrowers current with their monthly payments.

But the freeze is limited. It excludes anyone more than 30 days late at the time the mortgage would be modified or anyone who has been more than 60 days late at any time within the previous 12 months.

It also only covers borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) resetting beginning in 2008 and leaves out any who are judged capable of continuing to make mortgage payments at the higher reset rates.

Borrowers who can’t afford the loan even at low introductory rates also will be ineligible, according to Anne Canfield, executive director of the Consumer Mortgage Coalition, which represents lenders and mortgage servicers. Those borrowers will have to work with servicers on a case-by-case basis to determine if their homes can be saved.

Of the 2.2 million subprime ARMS that are expected to reset through the end of 2008, only 240,000 of those would be covered by the freeze, according to an analysis made by investment banker Barclays Capital as reported in The New York Times.

“I think the plan is good in theory,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com, “but, in practice, it’s going to come up short. There are too many impediments to its widespread adoption by investors and servicers.”

Obstacles include contractual obligations between servicers and investors as well as logistical difficulties. When loans have been sliced up and resold through the securitization process, it can be hard to determine who ultimately has the authority to decide what modifications are possible and still in the best interests of the investors.

Furthermore, said Zandi, “There’s no stick in the plan; it depends on moral suasion.”

Help will be available even for many homeowners who won’t benefit under the the administration’s freeze plan, according to Canfield.

“The industry will still work to modify these loans,” she said. “We have every incentive to do that.”

Delinquent loans increase financial pressure on servicers because they still have to make payments to investors, as well as tax payments to local governments, according to Canfield.

The principle aim of the Bush plan is to streamline the modification process, allowing them to get fast help. Lenders will examine readily available loan criteria, such as loan-to-value ratios, loan amount, credit scores and payment history, to make a quick determination of qualifications.

That makes it a “start in the right direction,” said Darla Keegan, speaking for Novadebt, a national nonprofit housing and credit counseling agency, because it will move some borrowers through the system quickly. Mortgage counseling services are currently stretched.

For the rest, she said, “We can still see if lenders will work out agreements with lenders for these borrowers.”

“Qualified borrowers will get their modifications much more quickly,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, senior vice president for government affairs with the Mortgage Bankers Association. “A whole cohort will be done on an accelerated basis.”

Still, said Bruce Marks, chief executive of the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, a community advocacy group, “The number of borrowers affected by the plan is very small, but it sets the precedent and standard so that more borrowers can be helped down the road.”

He expects more of that help to come. “An important point is why they’re doing it. They’re seeing the numbers of delinquencies. They can’t say publicly that it will have a huge impact on the economy, but this action says that.”

If the impact of subprime foreclosures increases, pressure will build for the government to do more.

The agreement does leap one of the thorniest hurdles to making wholesale mortgage modifications work: resistance from the investment community. Investors were sold a bill of goods, according to John Taylor, CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.

“They were promised a product that looked very safe and had attractive rates,” he said. “Now they’re getting little or nothing in return and are being asked to take bigger losses.”

As the foreclosure crisis deepened it became apparent that many sensible modifications were being shot down because investors would not agree to them. An analysis by Moody’s earlier this autumn revealed only about 1 percent of resetting ARMs had been modified this year.

The administration had to use its powers of persuasion to get investors aboard at all, according to Don Lampe, a real estate attorney who has testified before Congress on subprime mortgage issues. “Investor push-back probably weakened the plan,” he said.

Despite all the criticism, the initiative was welcomed by nearly all the players, including consumer groups. Many wish it were stronger but were happy to see some response from the administration.

As Lampe put it, “Perfection is the enemy of progress.”

The president also used the announcement as an opportunity to call on Congress to act more expeditiously on passing mortgage relief legislation, including the FHA Modernization bill, changes in the tax code, so lender concessions to borrowers are not taxed as income, and a bill enabling local and state governments to issue bonds to finance mortgage refinancings. All have been bottled up in the Senate for weeks or months.